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High energy and fertilizer prices are more damaging than food export curtailment from Ukraine and Russia for food prices, health and the environment

Higher food prices arising from restrictions on exports from Russia or Ukraine have been exacerbated by energy price rises, leading to higher costs for agricultural inputs such as fertilizer. Here, using a scenario modelling approach, we quantify the …

The influence of thinning and prescribed burning on future forest fires in fire-prone regions of Europe

Climate change is expected to increase fire risk in many forested regions, posing a potential threat to forest functioning (i.e., carbon pools and fluxes). At the same time, expansion of the wildland-urban interface threatens to bring ever more …

Assessing the impacts of agricultural managements on soil carbon stocks, nitrogen loss, and crop production – a modelling study in eastern Africa

Improved agricultural management plays a vital role in protecting soils from degradation in eastern Africa. Changing practices such as reducing tillage, fertilizer use, or cover crops are expected to enhance soil organic carbon (SOC) storage, with …

Global and regional health and food security under strict conservation scenarios

Global biodiversity is rapidly declining, and goals to halt biodiversity loss, such as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, have not been achieved. To avoid further biodiversity loss, area-based protection will form part of new biodiversity targets. We …

Modeling symbiotic biological nitrogen fixation in grain legumes globally with LPJ-GUESS (v4.0, r10285)

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) from grain legumes is of significant importance in global agricultural ecosystems. Crops with BNF capability are expected to support the need to increase food production while reducing nitrogen (N) fertilizer input …

Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model …

Modelling human-fire interactions: combining alternative perspectives and approaches

Although it has long been recognised that human activities affect fire regimes, the interactions between humans and fire are complex, imperfectly understood, constantly evolving, and lacking any kind of integrative global framework. Many different …

Understanding each other's models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication

Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle on the global scale and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modelling frameworks and consider different underlying …

Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties

Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster …

Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project

Global fire-vegetation models are widely used to assess impacts of environmental change on fire regimes and the carbon cycle and to infer relationships between climate, land use and fire. However, differences in model structure and parameterizations, …